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That was the title of a 1970 movie that cost three times as much to make as it generated in box office revenue. It might serve as an apt analogy to the market reaction to the opening round in the U.S. trade war with China. China specific tariffs took effect on Friday, and yet stocks rose pretty much everywhere, as investors chose to focus on economic conditions in the present, rather than speculating on the longer-term implications of a trade war. For how long investors will be able to look beyond these rising trade tensions remains to be seen, but at least on the first day it was a war to which nobody came.
Read more here: Suppose They Gave a War and Nobody Came?
As the second quarter came to a close, the Federal Reserve could claim a victory, of sorts. It was finally able to achieve its target of 2 percent core inflation, for the first time in six years, with release of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data for May. Being mindful of the threat of too much inflation, however, the Fed seems intent on additional future rate hikes, perhaps two more this year. Two weeks ago, Fed chair Powell said the case for continued gradual rate hikes is strong. Last week, Boston Fed president Rosengren said in a Wall Street Journal interview that he was comfortable with the “direction” of two more rate hikes this year, cautioning about the possibility of higher inflation from falling unemployment.
Read more here: Is it Time for the Fed to Take a Victory Lap?
Another week of trade threats and promised retaliation kept investors off stride and markets adrift. The S&P 500 shed 0.9 percent, its first weekly decline in the past five. Trade jitters were even less kind to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, however. Owing to its constituents’ greater exposure to foreign trade, the Dow fell 2.0 percent last week, its third decline in the past four weeks. And only a modest bounce on Friday prevented the Dow from dropping for nine straight days. …read more